Is It True That Baby Boomers dying off Will Cause A Housing Decline?
Last Updated on March 29, 2023 by Mark Ferguson
Everyone keeps asking me if Baby Boomers dying off will cause a housing decline? This idea may have been started by Robert Kiyosaki who wrote a book in 2002 about baby boomers creating a stock market crash in 2016. Obviously, there was no stock market crash in 2016 but that has not stopped people from continuing this idea with real estate. I have written many articles and created many videos that go over a possible housing crash and what my thoughts are on a crash. I have been an agent, investor, broker, author, and blogger for many years and I went through the last housing crash. I love seeing new ideas and new thoughts come about but I do not think baby boomers dying off will cause a housing crash for many reasons. Even if they did die off and the population of the United States decreased significantly I would not think a housing crash is coming any time soon.
Why do people saying that baby boomers dying off will cause a housing decline?
There is a growing movement behind the idea that the population demographics of the USA will cause a housing crash. A lot of people assume baby boomers are the largest generation and that when they die there will be millions of houses sitting around vacant.
Baby boomers are generally defined as people born from 1946 to 1964, which would make them 57 to 75 right now. The average lifespan in the United States is 78 years old. The baby boomers are getting to that age when they will, unfortunately, die, in fact, they have already been dying. I apologize for this, but it helps show some great data. There is a site that has a baby boomer death dial. https://pioneerproductions.blogspot.com/2020/11/baby-boomer-death-clock.html
- Total baby boomers: 85,358,000
- Alive baby boomers: 63,089,954
- Dead baby boomers: 22,268,046
25% of baby boomers have already died and as you can see it has not slowed down the real estate market at all!
Are there more millennials or baby boomers?
A lot of people assume baby boomers are the largest generation in the United States and they used to be. However, they are no longer the largest generation, millennials are. With boomers dying and thanks to immigration, millennials have passed them up. In fact, the millennial generation is growing, not dying off thanks to immigration. Some different sites have different numbers on how many millennials are alive compared to boomers but the consensus is that there are more Millenials.
This article shows that there are 70 million baby boomers which is much more than the baby boomer death clock site, but still fewer than the millennials who total about 72 million and are projected to increase in population. As the baby boomers die off, the population will still increase because of immigration and new births. It is true that the birth rate is slowing down, but the population is still projected to grow thanks to immigration.
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Will the United States population keep growing?
The United States birth rate has slowed down. Some people say that means the population will start declining soon. The Millenials are the largest generation and if the next generations are smaller that has to mean the population will go down right? Well, that is not what the experts say. Check out the graph below:
Thank you to: https://www.brookings.edu/research/reducing-immigration-will-not-stop-americas-rising-diversity-census-projections-show/ for this great graph showing projections. The only way the Unites States starts losing population is if immigration is completely stopped. I do not think that is likely to happen.
Some also say that with lower birth rates the US housing market will slow down because there are fewer people who will buy a house. Even if there is no immigration and the population does start to decrease, people who buy houses are not babies. The people who buy houses are usually at least 20 years old so we would not see a decrease in the house buying population for at least 20 years after the birth rate decline starts. However, as we can see the birth rate decline may not matter.
Does a shrinking population cause housing prices to decline?
I will go one step further and look at what happens if there is no immigration and the birth rate keeps shrinking and 20 years down the road the population starts to decline. Prices have to go down at that point right? Many people assume that a dropping population would decrease housing prices, but that is not always true. There are many countries with a decreasing population now that have rising housing prices!
- Puerto Rico: Technically this is not a country but it is pretty close. They have had a decreasing population for years, an economic crisis, got hit by a devastating hurricane, and have rising house prices.
- Latvia: They are losing more than 1 % of their population a year, but real estate prices are still increasing!
- Lithuania: They also have a decreasing population but increasing real estate prices.
- Bulgaria: Again they have a decreasing population with increasing real estate prices.
- Cook Islands: this tiny country is losing almost 2.5% of its population a year, yet real estate prices are booming.
Obviously, too much of a decline could cause problems but a slowing of the population growth or even a population decline does not mean housing prices will decline either. There are many countries losing population right now and virtually none of them are experiencing a housing crash or even declining prices. I could have added 20 more countries to this list.
Will there be a housing crash?
I have many articles and videos that go over my thoughts on a housing crash that I will post at the end of this section. My thoughts are that we will not have a housing crash. There have only been four housing crashes in the history of the United States and they were in 2008, the 1930s, the 1870s, and the 1830s. I define a housing crash as an across-the-board 20% decline in prices. Those crashes were all caused by horrible lending and overbuilding. Neither of those factors are happening right now, in fact, it is the opposite. Lending guidelines are stricter than ever and there are way too few houses for the population.
Some points others like to bring up about a future crash:
- The pandemic will cause foreclosures and evictions. This could happen but defaults are very similar right now to what they were prior to the pandemic. Not everyone is losing their home to foreclosure and if they do, it takes 800 days on average to foreclose in the US. Even in a worst-case scenario, it will be a long time before those foreclosures, which are not occurring, come on the market.
- When interest rates go up prices will crash. I have looked at the data and studies on this and never before have rising interest rates caused a decline in prices. People have their rates locked in and if rates go up it will stop them from moving which will decrease inventory. A decrease in inventory pushes prices up, not down.
- Houses are unaffordable. Housing in the United States is the 3rd most affordable in the world. Houses seem expensive because they were so cheap in 2012, but they are not compared to the rest of the world. Housing expenses as a percentage of household income have even decreased lately! Low interest rates make this one of the most affordable times to buy.
- Prices are spiking. A lot of people think that because prices are going up they must come down. But, that is what prices are supposed to do in our economy with inflation. They are always supposed to be at their highest if things are working like they are supposed to. If you look at the historic chart for pricing it is not that crazy compared to 40 years ago.
Thank you to: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
What about predictions of a housing crash?
A lot of people are still predicting a crash and I simply do not agree with them. One of the people talking about it the most is Robert Kiyosaki who wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, the best-selling financial book of all time. He is constantly talking about a crash based on different factors. Why should you listen to me and not him? Well, he has been predicting a crash since 2014 and it has not happened yet. He also predicted a spike in gold prices and told people they should sell their real estate and buy gold or silver.
Others have used the reasons I mentioned above to predict a crash, and many have been predicting one for years but the truth is housing crashes don’t happen very often. Below you will find the videos and articles I have mentioned throughout the article:
Conclusion
There are a lot of people out there trying to scare people about a housing crash. Many of those people have been predicting a crash for years, some for close to a decade. The truth is housing crashes do not happen often and it takes cataclysmic events for one to occur. When looking at the population trends, I do not see anything that would cause a crash or a decline. The population is not decreasing in the United States, it is not predicted to decrease, and even in countries with population decreases the real estate market is strong.
This is really interesting. Thank you for sharing and for including the stats and graphs which make it really clear and easy to understand.
Glad it helps!
Great Information Mark 👋
Illnois is the only state with a population decline and more people are moving to NWI & surrounding states!!
Thanks!
This was really a worthless article and I’ll explain why. You used irrational date to state your case. Here are a couple of points that will obliterate your points:
The number of alive versus dead boomers is a moot point. All that matters is the amount of real estate they control. Currently they control 45% of the housing market. This is the only number that matters, so let’s move on.
Many boomers opted for opulent and suburban lifestyles. They do not understand metrics and they do not understand the current paradigms in real estate. They keep watching the ledger move up and up, similar to yourself. They have no understanding the falsely inflated narratives they control.
Value at the moment is based on supply and demand. People are exiting high cost living areas for lower cost areas and driving costs up. This is forcing locals out of their own towns and creating an issue of affordability. This is no better than a ponzi scheme with no real value accounting for a property other than someone wants it more. It’s like the old adage ‘what makes art valuable… getting some idiot to believe it is’.
Milennials will start moving into some form of shelter, but to think they will up and move into boomers’ houses is an assumption at best. Milennials for the most part are minimalists, more active, prefer functional to fancy and work remote. More than likely they will move into smaller functional homes or townhomes. Also, they will most likely move where they can carry out an active lifestyle – near parks (because of greener initiatives) and spread out more (no need to crowd due to remote capabilities).
What will essentially happen – boomers will keep continuing to die out and their homes will come off the market and fall into disarray. Their kin will sell the properties just to collect a few dollars and keep the maintenance off their books. If there is one thing I know for certain, people in real estate know nothing about real estate. They are honestly no better than art collectors who think they understand art. You pump as much money into the real estate market as you want. Market is already projected to cool off by over 3% by end of this year. In 2025 you’ll see a sharp decline. Good luck with your investment advice though.
Those are the points that obliterate my argument? Owning 45% of the housing market means nothing without context. How is that compared to historic trends? That is not the majority of housing. THe rest of your argument is major assumptions based on your view of millenials. The problem is that most millennials are acting very much like boomers as far as house buying goes and there was a generation in between them too you seemed to have forgotten about.
How does overall population decide how many people are buying houses? Millennials are buying houses right now. Homes are being built because housing cannot keep up with millennials demands. Boomers houses will go for sale in 10-15 years as they die off, but millennials will have already bought. What will be done with boomer houses? Immigration? Gen z will be barely ready to buy. I see way too many houses on the market in 15 years. And no one to buy them and no one who can afford them.
Boomers have already been dying off. THey are not all going to die in five years. It is a process that happens over many years and many houses are taken out of service they do not last forever. millennials and the new generations will keep on buying. People do not just buy one house and be done.
Mark??? Really?? If you buy another house, you still need to sell your old one. It is not an exchange, like it is when trading in your car for a new one. You seem to just consider the purchasing of new homes, not the older one. Wake up Mark, but then you will not post this anyways.
You know that when you trade your car in for a new know that the car dealership sells that car right? They don’t scrap them. Maybe a few they scrap and a few hosues are scrapped too. They tear them down for businesses or apartments and some are just left to decay as people move to different areas and need new housing.
You forgot about the generation between boomers and millennials too Mark. You also seem to think that 25% dying off did not affect the market, so the remaining 75% dying off will not affect the market. THAT assumption is wrong and any data based on that assumption is wrong as a result. Billie’s argument was a let down after claiming it would blow yours out of the water, but it is not wrong. My kids are millennials, all of them and they and their friends are not interested in buying houses as YOU claim. I bought my first hose when I was 26. Most of the people I know, have done the same by the time they are 30. That just does not happen anymore. You have a vested interest in YOUR article, so I do not expect a reasonable reply from you. I have yet to see one when someone disagrees with you.
The market went bonkers while that 25 percent died off. So how did it cause a crash or a downturn?
Every generation dies off. That is a fact. There have only been four crashes in 200 years in the US. that is also a fact based on a 20 percent decrease in value of the median house price. SO why is it only the boomer generation will for sure crash the market?
SO your argument is that your kids don’t want to buy houses so that mean no millenials want to buy? If they don’t buy houses, where are they going to live? Are they going to live in the streets or rent houses or apartments?